Biography
Kym joined the Research Institute for Primary Care and Health Sciences in June 2016, and has an active research and teaching role within the Centre for Prognosis Research. Prior to this she worked at the University of Birmingham in prognostic and diagnostic research.
Kym has a BSc (Hons) in Statistics from the University of Reading and an MSc in Medical Statistics from the University of Leicester. She later completed a PhD at the University of Birmingham in statistical methods for developing and validating prognostic models. She continues to work in the field of prognosis research, with a particular interest in individualised prediction, survival outcomes, and the synthesis of individual participant data (IPD) from multiple studies/sources.
She leads the Centre’s training course on ‘Statistical methods for risk prediction and prognostic models’, and is an Associate Editor of the journal Diagnostic and Prognostic Research.
Research and scholarship
Kym’s research is currently funded by an NIHR SPCR Launching Fellowship. She is investigating various methodological challenges relating to the use of individual participant data (IPD) from multiple studies or sources for the purpose of developing and validating prediction models. This includes looking at the sample size requirements for prediction modelling studies, handling of missing data across multiple studies, and reporting of systematic reviews and meta-analysis studies for prediction models.
Kym is also involved in a range of applied research projects including IPPIC stillbirth (predicting stillbirth in pregnancy), IPPIC FGR (predicting fetal growth restriction in pregnancy), Back-UP (predicting outcomes in individuals with back and neck pain), STRATIFY-BP (stratifying antihypertensive treatments in multi-morbid hypertensives for personalised management of blood pressure).
Teaching
Kym teaches on courses run at Keele University:
- Lecturing on the 3-day training course ‘Statistical methods for risk prediction and prognostic models’ that runs twice a year
- Lecturing on the 3-day training course ‘Prognosis Research Summer School (PROGRESS)’
- Lecturing on the 3rd year BSc Mathematics module on Medical Statistics
- Small group teaching on the MBChB
Selected Publications
- 2023.
- 2023.
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Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models developed or validated using clustered data: TRIPOD-Cluster checklist. BMJ, e071018, vol. 380. link> doi> full text>2023.
- 2023.
- 2023.
Full Publications Listshow
Journal Articles
- 2023.
- 2023.
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Transparent reporting of multivariable prediction models developed or validated using clustered data: TRIPOD-Cluster checklist. BMJ, e071018, vol. 380. link> doi> full text>2023.
- 2023.
- 2023.
- 2023.
- 2022.
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Development and external validation of a risk prediction model for falls in patients with an indication for antihypertensive treatment: retrospective cohort study. BMJ, e070918, vol. 379. link> doi> full text>2022.
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Diabetic Retinopathy Progression from referral to treatment or vision loss: Development and Internal Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model. doi>2022.
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Diagnostic Models Combining Clinical Information, Ultrasound and Biochemical Markers for Ovarian Cancer: Cochrane Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Cancers (Basel), vol. 14(15). link> doi> full text>2022.
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Menopausal status, ultrasound and biomarker tests in combination for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in symptomatic women. Cochrane Database Syst Rev, CD011964, vol. 7(7). link> doi> full text>2022.
- 2022.
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Validation of prediction models in the presence of competing risks: a guide through modern methods. BMJ, e069249, vol. 377. link> doi> full text>2022.
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External validation of prognostic models to predict stillbirth using International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) Network database: individual participant data meta-analysis. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol, 209-219, vol. 59(2). link> doi> full text>2022.
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Predicting relapse or recurrence of depression: systematic review of prognostic models. Br J Psychiatry, 448-458, vol. 221(2). link> doi> full text>2022.
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Lessons learnt when accounting for competing events in the external validation of time-to-event prognostic models. Int J Epidemiol, 615-625, vol. 51(2). link> doi> full text>2022.
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Minimum sample size calculations for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a time-to-event outcome. Stat Med, 1280-1295, vol. 41(7). link> doi> full text>2022.
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The development of individualised work absence prediction models in patients with neck and/or low back pain. Physiotherapy, e35, vol. 113(S1). link> doi> link> full text>2021.
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Predicting hospital admissions from individual patient data (IPD): an applied example to explore key elements driving external validity. BMJ Open, e045572, vol. 11(8). link> doi> full text>2021.
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The development and validation of a prognostic model to PREDICT Relapse of depression in adult patients in primary care: protocol for the PREDICTR study. Diagn Progn Res, 12, vol. 5(1). link> doi> full text>2021.
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Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a binary outcome. Stat Med, 4230-4251, vol. 40(19). link> doi> full text>2021.
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Prognostic models for predicting relapse or recurrence of major depressive disorder in adults. Cochrane Database Syst Rev, CD013491, vol. 5(5). link> doi> full text>2021.
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Internal-external cross-validation helped to evaluate the generalizability of prediction models in large clustered datasets. J Clin Epidemiol, 83-91, vol. 137. link> doi> full text>2021.
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Individual participant data meta-analysis for external validation, recalibration, and updating of a flexible parametric prognostic model. Stat Med, 3066-3084, vol. 40(13). link> doi> full text>2021.
- 2021.
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Predicting negative health outcomes in older general practice patients with chronic illness: Rationale and development of the PROPERmed harmonized individual participant data database. Mech Ageing Dev, 111436, vol. 194. link> doi> full text>2021.
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External validation of clinical prediction models: simulation-based sample size calculations were more reliable than rules-of-thumb. J Clin Epidemiol, 79-89, vol. 135. link> doi> full text>2021.
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Association between antihypertensive treatment and adverse events: systematic review and meta-analysis. BMJ, n189, vol. 372. link> doi> full text>2021.
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Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a continuous outcome. Stat Med, 133-146, vol. 40(1). link> doi> full text>2021.
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Are Anticholinergic Symptoms a Risk Factor for Falls in Older General Practice Patients With Polypharmacy? Study Protocol for the Development and Validation of a Prognostic Model. Front Pharmacol, 577747, vol. 11. link> doi> full text>2020.
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Penalization and shrinkage methods produced unreliable clinical prediction models especially when sample size was small. J Clin Epidemiol, 88-96, vol. 132. link> doi> full text>2021.
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Validation and development of models using clinical, biochemical and ultrasound markers for predicting pre-eclampsia: an individual participant data meta-analysis. Health Technol Assess, 1-252, vol. 24(72). link> doi> full text>2020.
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External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis. BMC Med, 302, vol. 18(1). link> doi> full text>2020.
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Clinical prediction models to predict the risk of multiple binary outcomes: a comparison of approaches. Stat Med, 498-517, vol. 40(2). link> doi> full text>2021.
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A prognostic model predicted deterioration in health-related quality of life in older patients with multimorbidity and polypharmacy. J Clin Epidemiol, 1-12, vol. 130. link> doi> full text>2021.
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Can risk prediction models help us individualise stillbirth prevention? A systematic review and critical appraisal of published risk models. BJOG, 214-224, vol. 128(2). link> doi> full text>2021.
- 2020.
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One-stage individual participant data meta-analysis models for continuous and binary outcomes: Comparison of treatment coding options and estimation methods. Stat Med, 2536-2555, vol. 39(19). link> doi> full text>2020.
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Prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of covid-19: systematic review and critical appraisal. BMJ, m1328, vol. 369. link> doi> full text>2020.
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Systematic review and critical appraisal of prediction models for diagnosis and prognosis of COVID-19 infection. doi>2020.
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Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model. BMJ, m441, vol. 368. link> doi> full text>2020.
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The test accuracy of antenatal ultrasound definitions of fetal macrosomia to predict birth injury: A systematic review. Eur J Obstet Gynecol Reprod Biol, 79-85, vol. 246. link> doi> full text>2020.
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Guide to presenting clinical prediction models for use in clinical settings. BMJ, l737, vol. 365. link> doi> full text>2019.
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A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies. BMJ, k4597, vol. 364. link> doi> full text>2019.
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Development and validation of prediction models to estimate risk of primary total hip and knee replacements using data from the UK: two prospective open cohorts using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Ann Rheum Dis, 91-99, vol. 78(1). link> doi> full text>2019.
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Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: PART II - binary and time-to-event outcomes. Stat Med, 1276-1296, vol. 38(7). link> doi> full text>2019.
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Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: Part I - Continuous outcomes. Stat Med, 1262-1275, vol. 38(7). link> doi> full text>2019.
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Development and validation of prediction models to estimate risk of primary total hip and knee replacements using data from the UK: two prospective open cohorts using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. doi> full text>2018.
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Prediction of pre-eclampsia: review of reviews. Ultrasound Obstet Gynecol, 16-27, vol. 54(1). link> doi> full text>2019.
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Individual participant data meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: A comparison of approaches for specifying and estimating one-stage models. Stat Med, 4404-4420, vol. 37(29). link> doi> full text>2018.
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A framework for meta-analysis of prediction model studies with binary and time-to-event outcomes. Stat Methods Med Res, 2768-2786, vol. 28(9). link> doi> full text>2019.
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Exploring the roles of urinary HAI-1, EpCAM & EGFR in bladder cancer prognosis & risk stratification. Oncotarget, 25244-25253, vol. 9(38). link> doi> full text>2018.
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Simulation-based power calculations for planning a two-stage individual participant data meta-analysis. BMC Med Res Methodol, 41, vol. 18(1). link> doi> full text>2018.
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Guidance for deriving and presenting percentage study weights in meta-analysis of test accuracy studies. Res Synth Methods, 163-178, vol. 9(2). link> doi> full text>2018.
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External validation, update and development of prediction models for pre-eclampsia using an Individual Participant Data (IPD) meta-analysis: the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complication Network (IPPIC pre-eclampsia) protocol. Diagn Progn Res, 16, vol. 1. link> doi> full text>2017.
- 2018.
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Meta-analysis of prediction model performance across multiple studies: Which scale helps ensure between-study normality for the C-statistic and calibration measures?. Stat Methods Med Res, 3505-3522, vol. 27(11). link> doi> full text>2018.
- 2017.
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A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance. BMJ, i6460, vol. 356. link> doi> full text>2017.
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Refining Ovarian Cancer Test accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS): protocol for a prospective longitudinal test accuracy study to validate new risk scores in women with symptoms of suspected ovarian cancer. BMJ open, e010333, vol. 6(8). doi> link> full text>2016.
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External validation of clinical prediction models using big datasets from e-health records or IPD meta-analysis: opportunities and challenges. BMJ, i3140, vol. 353. link> doi> full text>2016.
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Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE. BMJ Open, e011190, vol. 6(5). link> doi> full text>2016.
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Prediction of risk of recurrence of venous thromboembolism following treatment for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: systematic review, prognostic model and clinical decision rule, and economic evaluation. Health Technol Assess, i-190, vol. 20(12). link> doi> full text>2016.
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Symptoms, ultrasound imaging and biochemical markers alone or in combination for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in women with symptoms suspicious of ovarian cancer. The Cochrane database of systematic reviews, vol. 2015(12). doi>2015.
- 2016.
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Multivariate meta-analysis of individual participant data helped externally validate the performance and implementation of a prediction model. J Clin Epidemiol, 40-50, vol. 69. link> doi> full text>2016.
- 2014.
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Challenges in the development of prognostic models utilising clinical trials data. Trials, P115, vol. 14(Suppl 1). doi>2013.
- 2012.
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Comparison and reproducibility of standard and high temporal resolution myocardial tissue tagging in patients with severe aortic stenosis. Journal of cardiovascular magnetic resonance : official journal of the Society for Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance, P311, vol. 13(Suppl 1). doi> full text>2011.
Other
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IS MEAN CORPUSCULAR HAEMOGLOBIN CONCENTRATION OVER TIME A PREDICTOR OF DIABETIC NEPHROPATHY IN TYPE 2 DIABETES? FINDINGS FROM A NESTED CASE-CONTROL STUDY. NEPHROLOGY DIALYSIS TRANSPLANTATION (vol. 34). link> full text>2019.
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Role 4 trauma population in the modern era: training for contingency operations. BRITISH JOURNAL OF SURGERY (pp. 206-207, vol. 103). link>2016.
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Refining Ovarian Cancer Test accuracy Scores (ROCkeTS) trial update. BJOG-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY (p. 102, vol. 123). link>2016.
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Symptoms, ultrasound and biomarkers in combination for the diagnosis of ovarian cancer in women with suspicious symptoms: A systematic review and meta-analysis. BJOG-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY (pp. 102-103, vol. 123). link>2016.
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Can Assessment of Patient Monoclonal Immunoglobulins By Heavy/Light Analysis be Used to Assign Patient Responses Analogous to IMWG Response Criteria?. BLOOD (vol. 126). link>2015.
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Predictors, in-hospital, short and long term prognosis of cardiac arrest complicating first acute ST elevation myocardial infarction: analysis of national STEMI database. EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL (p. 45, vol. 33). link>2012.
- 2011.
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