Biography

Joie is a Lecturer in Biostatistics at Keele University. He works primarily within the Centre for Prognosis Research at Keele. He previously held a post at the University of Birmingham as a Research Fellow working in the development and validation of prediction models and IPD meta-analysis methods.

Joie joined Keele in January 2015 and his research interests focus on methodological advances in prediction modelling, model validation, IPD meta-analysis, and diagnostic test evaluation. Joie is also a keen programmer, writing statistical software to enable others to use newly developed methodology.

Joie leads the Centre’s training course on ‘Statistical methods for meta-analysis of individual participant data’, and is a member of the Cochrane Prognosis Methods Group (PMG). He is also an Associate Editor of the journal Diagnostic and Prognostic Research.

Research and scholarship

Research and Scholarship
Joie has a number of software packages available in both Stata and R.

pmcalplot
Ensor, J., Snell, K.I.E., and E.C. Martin. PMCALPLOT: Stata module to produce calibration plot of prediction model performance >>link

pmsampsize
Ensor, J., Martin, E.C., Riley, R.D., pmsampsize: Calculates the Minimum Sample Size Required for Developing a Multivariable Prediction Model >>link 

pmsampsize
Ensor, J., Martin, E.C., Riley, R.D., PMSAMPSIZE: Stata module to calculate the minimum sample size required for developing a multivariable prediction model >>link

 

Teaching

Medical statistics module lead for BSc Mathematics and MMath students

Statistics and epidemiology teaching including;
  • Public health lecturing on the MBChB
  • Lecturing in clinical effectiveness for School of Nursing
Teaching on statistical courses at Keele including;

• Statistical methods for meta-analysis of individual participant data
• Statistical methods for risk prediction & prognostic models
• Effective and efficient initiation and delivery of IPD meta-analyses: practical guidance
• Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis of Prognosis Studies
• Prognosis research in healthcare: concepts, methods and impact

Further information

 

We run a number of statistical methods courses here at Keele University, led by the Centre for Prognosis Research. Please see below for course dates.

Upcoming courses including;

  • Effective and efficient initiation and delivery of IPD meta-analyses: practical guidance (October 2020)
  • Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis of Prognosis Studies (December 2020)

 

Selected Publications

  • Zhang F, Bharadwaj A, Mohamed MO, Ensor J, Peat G, Mamas MA. 2020. Impact of Charlson Co-Morbidity Index Score on Management and Outcomes After Acute Coronary Syndrome. Am J Cardiol, vol. 130, 15-23. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Legha A, Jackson D, Morris TP, Ensor J, Snell KIE, White IR, Burke DL. 2020. One-stage individual participant data meta-analysis models for continuous and binary outcomes: Comparison of treatment coding options and estimation methods. Stat Med, vol. 39(19), 2536-2555. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Debray TPA, Fisher D, Hattle M, Marlin N, Hoogland J, Gueyffier F, Staessen JA, Wang J, Moons KGM, Reitsma JB, Ensor J. 2020. Individual participant data meta-analysis to examine interactions between treatment effect and participant-level covariates: Statistical recommendations for conduct and planning. Stat Med, vol. 39(15), 2115-2137. link> doi> full text>
  • Booth S, Riley RD, Ensor J, Lambert PC, Rutherford MJ. 2020. Temporal recalibration for improving prognostic model development and risk predictions in settings where survival is improving over time. Int J Epidemiol, vol. 49(4), 1316-1325. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Ensor J, Snell KIE, Harrell FE, Martin GP, Reitsma JB, Moons KGM, Collins G, van Smeden M. 2020. Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model. BMJ, vol. 368, m441. link> doi> full text>

Full Publications List show

Journal Articles

  • Zhang F, Bharadwaj A, Mohamed MO, Ensor J, Peat G, Mamas MA. 2020. Impact of Charlson Co-Morbidity Index Score on Management and Outcomes After Acute Coronary Syndrome. Am J Cardiol, vol. 130, 15-23. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Legha A, Jackson D, Morris TP, Ensor J, Snell KIE, White IR, Burke DL. 2020. One-stage individual participant data meta-analysis models for continuous and binary outcomes: Comparison of treatment coding options and estimation methods. Stat Med, vol. 39(19), 2536-2555. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Debray TPA, Fisher D, Hattle M, Marlin N, Hoogland J, Gueyffier F, Staessen JA, Wang J, Moons KGM, Reitsma JB, Ensor J. 2020. Individual participant data meta-analysis to examine interactions between treatment effect and participant-level covariates: Statistical recommendations for conduct and planning. Stat Med, vol. 39(15), 2115-2137. link> doi> full text>
  • Booth S, Riley RD, Ensor J, Lambert PC, Rutherford MJ. 2020. Temporal recalibration for improving prognostic model development and risk predictions in settings where survival is improving over time. Int J Epidemiol, vol. 49(4), 1316-1325. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Ensor J, Snell KIE, Harrell FE, Martin GP, Reitsma JB, Moons KGM, Collins G, van Smeden M. 2020. Calculating the sample size required for developing a clinical prediction model. BMJ, vol. 368, m441. link> doi> full text>
  • Zhang F, Mohamed MO, Ensor J, Peat G, Mamas MA. 2020. Temporal Trends in Comorbidity Burden and Impact on Prognosis in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome Using the Elixhauser Comorbidity Index Score. Am J Cardiol, vol. 125(11), 1603-1611. link> doi> full text>
  • Pihl K, Ensor J, Peat G, Englund M, Lohmander S, Jørgensen U, Nissen N, Fristed JV, Thorlund JB. 2020. Wild goose chase - no predictable patient subgroups benefit from meniscal surgery: patient-reported outcomes of 641 patients 1 year after surgery. Br J Sports Med, vol. 54(1), 13-22. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Moons KGM, Snell KIE, Ensor J, Hooft L, Altman DG, Hayden J, Collins GS, Debray TPA. 2019. A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies. BMJ, vol. 364, k4597. link> doi> full text>
  • Rashid M, Fischman DL, Martinez SC, Capers Q, Savage M, Zaman A, Curzen N, Ensor J, Potts J, Mohamed MO, Kwok CS, Kinnaird T, Bagur R, Mamas M. 2019. Temporal trends and predictors of time to coronary angiography following non-ST-elevation acute coronary syndrome in the USA. Coron Artery Dis, vol. 30(3), 159-170. link> doi> full text>
  • Rashid M, Fischman DL, Gulati M, Tamman K, Potts J, Kwok CS, Ensor J, Shoaib A, Mansour H, Zaman A, Savage MP, Mamas MA. 2019. Temporal trends and inequalities in coronary angiography utilization in the management of non-ST-Elevation acute coronary syndromes in the U.S. Sci Rep, vol. 9(1), 240. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Snell KI, Ensor J, Burke DL, Harrell FE, Moons KG, Collins GS. 2019. Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: PART II - binary and time-to-event outcomes. Stat Med, vol. 38(7), 1276-1296. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Snell KIE, Ensor J, Burke DL, Harrell FE, Moons KGM, Collins GS. 2019. Minimum sample size for developing a multivariable prediction model: Part I - Continuous outcomes. Stat Med, vol. 38(7), 1262-1275. link> doi> full text>
  • Chadi SA, Malcomson L, Ensor J, Riley RD, Vaccaro CA, Rossi GL, Daniels IR, Smart NJ, Osborne ME, Beets GL, Maas M, Bitterman DS, Du K, Gollins S, Sun Myint A, Smith FM, Saunders MP, Scott N, O'Dwyer ST, de Castro Araujo RO, Valadao M, Lopes A, Hsiao C-W, Lai C-L, Smith RK, Paulson EC, Appelt A, Jakobsen A, Wexner SD, Habr-Gama A, Sao Julião G, Perez R, Renehan AG. 2018. Factors affecting local regrowth after watch and wait for patients with a clinical complete response following chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer (InterCoRe consortium): an individual participant data meta-analysis. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol, vol. 3(12), 825-836. link> doi> full text>
  • Chadi SA, Malcomson L, Ensor J. 2019. Factors affecting local regrowth after watch and wait for patients with a clinical complete response following chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer (InterCoRe consortium): an individual participant data meta-analysis (vol 3, pg 825, 2018). LANCET GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY, vol. 4(2), E1. link> doi> full text>
  • Potts J, Sirker A, Martinez SC, Gulati M, Alasnag M, Rashid M, Kwok CS, Ensor J, Burke DL, Riley RD, Holmvang L, Mamas MA. 2018. Persistent sex disparities in clinical outcomes with percutaneous coronary intervention: Insights from 6.6 million PCI procedures in the United States. PLoS One, vol. 13(9), e0203325. link> doi> full text>
  • Legha A, Riley RD, Ensor J, Snell KIE, Morris TP, Burke DL. 2018. Individual participant data meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: A comparison of approaches for specifying and estimating one-stage models. Stat Med, vol. 37(29), 4404-4420. link> doi> full text>
  • Potts J, Kwok CS, Ensor J, Rashid M, Kadam U, Kinnaird T, Curzen N, Pancholy SB, Van der Windt D, Riley RD, Bagur R, Mamas MA. 2018. Temporal Changes in Co-Morbidity Burden in Patients Having Percutaneous Coronary Intervention and Impact on Prognosis. Am J Cardiol, vol. 122(5), 712-722. link> doi> full text>
  • Ensor J, Burke DL, Snell KIE, Hemming K, Riley RD. 2018. Simulation-based power calculations for planning a two-stage individual participant data meta-analysis. BMC Med Res Methodol, vol. 18(1), 41. link> doi> full text>
  • Burke DL, Ensor J, Snell KIE, van der Windt D, Riley RD. 2018. Guidance for deriving and presenting percentage study weights in meta-analysis of test accuracy studies. Res Synth Methods, vol. 9(2), 163-178. link> doi> full text>
  • Ensor J, Deeks JJ, Martin EC, Riley RD. 2018. Meta-analysis of test accuracy studies using imputation for partial reporting of multiple thresholds. Res Synth Methods, vol. 9(1), 100-115. link> doi> full text>
  • Monahan M, Ensor J, Moore D, Fitzmaurice D, Jowett S. 2017. Economic evaluation of strategies for restarting anticoagulation therapy after a first event of unprovoked venous thromboembolism. J Thromb Haemost, vol. 15(8), 1591-1600. link> doi> full text>
  • Snell KI, Ensor J, Debray TP, Moons KG, Riley RD. 2018. Meta-analysis of prediction model performance across multiple studies: Which scale helps ensure between-study normality for the C-statistic and calibration measures?. Stat Methods Med Res, vol. 27(11), 3505-3522. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Ensor J, Jackson D, Burke DL. 2018. Deriving percentage study weights in multi-parameter meta-analysis models: with application to meta-regression, network meta-analysis and one-stage individual participant data models. Stat Methods Med Res, vol. 27(10), 2885-2905. link> doi> full text>
  • Debray TPA, Damen JAAG, Snell KIE, Ensor J, Hooft L, Reitsma JB, Riley RD, Moons KGM. 2017. A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance. BMJ, vol. 356, i6460. link> doi> full text>
  • Gopalakrishna G, Langendam M, Scholten R, Bossuyt P, Leeflang M, Noel-Storr A, Thomas J, Marshall I, Wallace B, Whiting P, Davenport C, Leeflang M, GopalaKrishna G, de Salis I, Mallett S, Wolff R, Whiting P, Riley R, Westwood M, Kleinen J, Collins G, Reitsma H, Moons K, Zapf A, Hoyer A, Kramer K, Kuss O, Ensor J, Deeks JJ, Martin EC, Riley RD, Rücker G, Steinhauser S, Schumacher M, Riley R, Ensor J, Snell K, Willis B, Debray T, Moons K, Deeks J, Collins G, di Ruffano LF, Willis B, Davenport C, Mallett S, Taylor-Phillips S, Hyde C, Deeks J, Mallett S, Taylor SA, Batnagar G, STREAMLINE COLON Investigators, STREAMLINE LUNG Investigators, METRIC Investigators, Taylor-Phillips S, Di Ruffano LF, Seedat F, Clarke A, Deeks J, Byron S, Nixon F, Albrow R, Walker T, Deakin C, Hyde C, Zhelev Z, Hunt H, di Ruffano LF, Yang Y, Abel L, Buchanan J, Fanshawe T, Shinkins B, Wynants L, Verbakel J, Van Huffel S, Timmerman D, Van Calster B, Leeflang M, Zwinderman A, Bossuyt P, Oke J, O'Sullivan J, Perera R, Nicholson B, Bromley HL, Roberts TE, Francis A, Petrie D, Mann GB, Malottki K, Smith H, Deeks J, Billingham L, Sitch A, Mallett S, Deeks J, Gerke O, Holm-Vilstrup M, Segtnan EA, Halekoh U, Høilund-Carlsen PF, Francq BG, Deeks J, Sitch A, Dinnes J, Parkes J, Gregory W, Hewison J, Altman D, Rosenberg W, Selby P, Asselineau J, Perez P, Paye A, Bessede E, Proust-Lima C, Naaktgeboren C, de Groot J, Rutjes A, Bossuyt P, Reitsma J, Moons K, Collins G, Ogundimu E, Cook J, Le Manach Y, Altman D, Wynants L, Vergouwe Y, Van Huffel S, Timmerman D, Van Calster B, Pajouheshnia R, Groenwold R, Moons K, Reitsma J, Peelen L, Van Calster B, Nieboer D, Vergouwe Y, De Cock B, Pencina MJ, Steyerberg EW, Cooper J, Taylor-Phillips S, Parsons N, Stinton C, Smith S, Dickens A, Jordan R, Enocson A, Fitzmaurice D, Sitch A, Adab P, Francq BG, Boachie C, Vidmar G, Freeman K, Connock M, Taylor-Phillips S, Court R, Clarke A, de Groot J, Naaktgeboren C, Reitsma H, Moons C, Harris J, Mumford A, Plummer Z, Lee K, Reeves B, Rogers C, Verheyden V, Angelini GD, Murphy GJ, Huddy J, Ni M, Good K, Cooke G, Bossuyt P, Hanna G, Ma J, Altman D, Collins G, Moons KGMC, de Groot JAH, Mallett S, Altman DG, Reitsma JB, Collins GS, Moons KGM, Altman DG, Reitsma JB, Collins GS, Kamarudin AN, Kolamunnage-Dona R, Cox T, Ni M, Huddy J, Borsci S, Hanna G, Pérez T, Pardo MC, Candela-Toha A, Muriel A, Zamora J, Sanghera S, Mohiuddin S, Martin R, Donovan J, Coast J, Seo MK, Cairns J, Mitchell E, Smith A, Wright J, Hall P, Messenger M, Calder N, Wickramasekera N, Vinall-Collier K, Lewington A, Pajouheshnia R, Damen J, Groenwold R, Moons K, Peelen L, Messenger M, Cairns D, Smith A, Hutchinson M, Wright J, Hall P, Calder N, Sturgeon C, Mitchel L, Kift R, Christakoudi S, Rungall M, Mobillo P, Montero R, Tsui T-L, Kon SP, Tucker B, Sacks S, Farmer C, Strom T, Chowdhury P, Rebollo-Mesa I, Hernandez-Fuentes M, Damen JAAG, Debray TPA, Heus P, Hooft L, Moons KGM, Pajouheshnia R, Reitsma JB, Scholten RJPM, Damen JAAG, Hooft L, Schuit E, Debray TPA, Collins GS, Tzoulaki I, Lassale CM, Siontis GCM, Chiocchia V, Roberts C, Schlüssel MM, Gerry S, Black JA, Heus P, van der Schouw YT, Peelen LM, Moons KGM, Damen JAAG, Debray TPA, Heus P, Hooft L, Moons KGM, Pajouheshnia R, Reitsma JB, Scholten RJPM, Ma J, Altman D, Collins G, Spence G, McCartney D, van den Bruel A, Lasserson D, Hayward G, Vach W, de Jong A, Burggraaff C, Hoekstra O, Zijlstra J, de Vet H, Hunt H, Hyde C, Graziadio S, Allen J, Johnston L, O'Leary R, Power M, Allen J, Graziadio S, Johnson L, O'Leary R, Power M, Waters R, Simpson J, Johnston L, Allen J, Graziadio S, O'Leary R, Waters R, Power M, Mallett S, Fanshawe TR, Phillips P, Plumb A, Helbren E, Halligan S, Taylor SA, Gale A, Mallett S, Sekula P, Altman DG, Sauerbrei W, Mallett S, Fanshawe TR, Forman JR, Dutton SJ, Takwoingi Y, Hensor EM, Nichols TE, Shinkins B, Yang Y, Abel L, Di Ruffano LF, Fanshawe T, Kempf E, Porcher R, de Beyer J, Moons K, Altman D, Reitsma H, Hopewell S, Sauerbrei W, Collins G, Dennis J, Shields B, Jones A, Henley W, Pearson E, Hattersley A, MASTERMIND consortium, Heus P, Damen JAAG, Pajouheshnia R, Scholten RJPM, Reitsma JB, Collins GS, Altman DG, Moons KGM, Hooft L, Shields B, Dennis J, Jones A, Henley W, Pearson E, Hattersley A, MASTERMIND consortium, Scheibler F, Rummer A, Sturtz S, Großelfinger R, Banister K, Ramsay C, Azuara-Blanco A, Cook J, Boachie C, Burr J, Kumarasamy M, Bourne R, Uchegbu I, Borsci S, Murphy J, Hanna G, Uchegbu I, Carter A, Murphy J, Ni M, Marti J, Eatock J, Uchegbu I, Robotham J, Dudareva M, Gilchrist M, Holmes A, Uchegbu I, Borsci S, Monaghan P, Lord S, StJohn A, Sandberg S, Cobbaert C, Lennartz L, Verhagen-Kamerbeek W, Ebert C, Bossuyt P, Horvath A, Test Evaluation Working Group of the European Federation of Clinical Chemistry and Laboratory Medicine, Jenniskens K, Naaktgeboren C, Reitsma J, Moons K, de Groot J, Hyde C, Peters J, Grigore B, Peters J, Hyde C, Hyde C, Ukoumunne O, Peters J, Zhelev Z, Levis B, Benedetti A, Levis AW, Ioannidis JPA, Shrier I, Cuijpers P, Gilbody S, Kloda LA, McMillan D, Patten SB, Steele RJ, Ziegelstein RC, Bombardier CH, Osório FDL, Fann JR, Gjerdingen D, Lamers F, Lotrakul M, Loureiro SR, Löwe B, Shaaban J, Stafford L, van Weert HCPM, Whooley MA, Williams LS, Wittkampf KA, Yeung AS, Thombs BD, Peters J, Cooper C, Buchanan J, Nieto T, Smith C, Tucker O, Dretzke J, Beggs A, Rai N, Davenport C, Bayliss S, Stevens S, Snell K, Mallet S, Deeks J, Sundar S, Hall E, Porta N, Estelles DL, de Bono J, CTC-STOP protocol development group. 2017. Erratum to: Methods for evaluating medical tests and biomarkers. Diagn Progn Res, vol. 1, 11. link> doi>
  • Hua H, Burke DL, Crowther MJ, Ensor J, Tudur Smith C, Riley RD. 2017. One-stage individual participant data meta-analysis models: estimation of treatment-covariate interactions must avoid ecological bias by separating out within-trial and across-trial information. Stat Med, vol. 36(5), 772-789. link> doi> full text>
  • Burke DL, Ensor J, Riley RD. 2017. Meta-analysis using individual participant data: one-stage and two-stage approaches, and why they may differ. Stat Med, vol. 36(5), 855-875. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Ensor J, Snell KIE, Debray TPA, Altman DG, Moons KGM, Collins GS. 2016. External validation of clinical prediction models using big datasets from e-health records or IPD meta-analysis: opportunities and challenges. BMJ, vol. 353, i3140. link> doi> full text>
  • Ensor J, Riley RD, Moore D, Snell KIE, Bayliss S, Fitzmaurice D. 2016. Systematic review of prognostic models for recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE) post-treatment of first unprovoked VTE. BMJ Open, vol. 6(5), e011190. link> doi> full text>
  • Ensor J, Riley RD, Jowett S, Monahan M, Snell KI, Bayliss S, Moore D, Fitzmaurice D, PIT-STOP collaborative group. 2016. Prediction of risk of recurrence of venous thromboembolism following treatment for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: systematic review, prognostic model and clinical decision rule, and economic evaluation. Health Technol Assess, vol. 20(12), i-190. link> doi> full text>
  • Snell KIE, Hua H, Debray TPA, Ensor J, Look MP, Moons KGM, Riley RD. 2016. Multivariate meta-analysis of individual participant data helped externally validate the performance and implementation of a prediction model. J Clin Epidemiol, vol. 69, 40-50. link> doi> full text>
  • Dretzke J, Riley RD, Lordkipanidzé M, Jowett S, O'Donnell J, Ensor J, Moloney E, Price M, Raichand S, Hodgkinson J, Bayliss S, Fitzmaurice D, Moore D. 2015. The prognostic utility of tests of platelet function for the detection of 'aspirin resistance' in patients with established cardiovascular or cerebrovascular disease: a systematic review and economic evaluation. Health Technol Assess, vol. 19(37), 1-366. link> doi> full text>
  • Riley RD, Ahmed I, Ensor J, Takwoingi Y, Kirkham A, Morris RK, Noordzij JP, Deeks JJ. 2015. Meta-analysis of test accuracy studies: an exploratory method for investigating the impact of missing thresholds. Syst Rev, vol. 4, 12. link> doi> full text>
  • Dretzke J, Ensor J, Bayliss S, Hodgkinson J, Lordkipanidzé M, Riley RD, Fitzmaurice D, Moore D. 2014. Methodological issues and recommendations for systematic reviews of prognostic studies: an example from cardiovascular disease. Syst Rev, vol. 3, 140. link> doi>
  • Ensor J, Riley RD, Moore D, Bayliss S, Jowett S, Fitzmaurice DA. 2013. Protocol for a systematic review of prognostic models for the recurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) following treatment for a first unprovoked VTE. Syst Rev, vol. 2, 91. link> doi>
  • Archer L, Snell KIE, Ensor J, Hudda MT, Collins GS, Riley RD. 2020. Minimum sample size for external validation of a clinical prediction model with a continuous outcome. Stat Med. link> doi> full text>

Other

  • Pihl K, Ensor J, Peat G, Englund M, Lohmander LS, Jorgensen U, Nissen N, Fristed JV, Thorlund JB. 2018. DEVELOPMENT AND INTERNAL VALIDATION OF A PROGNOSTIC MODEL TO PREDICT CHANGE IN PATIENT-REPORTED OUTCOMES 1 YEAR FOLLOWING ARTHROSCOPIC MENISCAL SURGERY. OSTEOARTHRITIS AND CARTILAGE (vol. 26, pp. S402-S403). link> doi>
  • Lordkipanidze M, Dretzke J, Riley R, Jowett S, O'Donnell J, Ensor J, Moloney E, Price M, Raichand S, Hodgkinson J, Bayliss S, Moore D, Fitzmaurice D. 2015. The prognostic utility of platelet function testing for the detection of 'aspirin resistance' in patients with established cardiovascular disease. JOURNAL OF THROMBOSIS AND HAEMOSTASIS (vol. 13, p. 515). link>