Post Graduate Diploma in Quantitative Finance and Financial Engineering (Manchester Business School), Diploma in Actuarial Techniques (Faculty and Institute of Actuaries UK), BA Mathematics, PGCE, PGCert HE and QTS.
Lecturer of Mathematics at South Cheshire College; Assistant Examiner for A level mathematics for Cambridge International Examinations, Edexcel and AQA.
A Markov Approach to long-term care in the United Kingdom. Is the current funding mechanism sustainable?
There is a general consensus that demographic projections indicate that over the next 40 years, the number of people above current state pension age will exponentiate to unrivalled proportions. So will be disability, especially among women. We need to know a true estimate of the opportunity cost of disability and informal care. Given that the Care Bill Act 2014 has been put on hold until 2020; the long-term pressure on pension financing compounded by the budgetary constraints facing the present government, further increases are likely. The combined effect of these changes will be that more workers will be potentially called upon to care for increasingly elderly dependents over longer periods of their own working lives. Combining paid work and care in these circumstances may prove to be a difficult balancing act. These changes are likely to have a profound impact on our society in a number of areas. In particular there will be significantly increased demands on medical services especially, the increased demand for long-term care (LTC). Such a demand can only be sustained by means of private social insurance. The dilemma is that there is currently too much uncertainty involved for the private sector to take on the full risk. There is uncertainty over how long people will live, uncertainty over changing care and support needs, uncertainty over costs, and uncertainty over wider changes that could affect care. These uncertainties have meant that the sector has struggled to design affordable and attractive products that people want to buy. Infact, there has been a market failure. The aims of this thesis are: design retirement and disability markov models and then use them to estimate long term care insurance.
Supervisor: Dr Roman Raab