Dr John Belcher

Title: Senior Lecturer
Phone: 33653
Email:
Location: MacKay Building Room 2.14
Role:
Contacting me:

After completing A levels in Maths, Further Maths, French and History, I studied Mathematics at Lancaster University from 1982-1985. I then accepted a SERC funded Research Assistant post to develop techniques for modelling irregularly spaced ocean core data for three years, while studying part time for an MPhil degree. In 1988 I was appointed as a Lecturer in Statistics in the Mathematics Department at Keele as part of a joint initiative between the University and the North Staffordshire Hospital Trust. In 1997 I obtained my PhD in statistics using project data generated through this link.

I left Keele in 2003, but returned as a Teaching Fellow for 2004-2007. For the next two years I worked as a Lecturer in Statistics at the North Wales Clinical School in Wrexham, before being appointed to Senior Lecturer in Biostatistics within the Arthritis Research UK Primary Care Centre in 2009 and acted as a Front Line Adviser for Medical Statistics for the West Midlands Research Design Service.

I am interested in the modelling of longitudinal and time series data. The former includes applications of Linear Mixed Models and GEEs to longitudinal survey data collected in the Centre, while the latter can encompass intervention analysis and segmented regression techniques applied to prescription data. The applications of multivariate longitudinal data, involving a mixture of binary, ordinal and continuous outcome data, are currently being explored.

I am also interested in the teaching of Medical Statistics and regularly attend the Conference for Teachers of Medical Statistics, “Burwalls”.

I am currently responsible for MAT-30014 Medical Statistics but have plans to develop other statistical modules. On Monday and Wednesday I usually am in the Faculty of Health, but in the maths office Tuesday, Thursday, Friday.

Selected Publications

  • Muller S, Hider SL, Belcher J, Helliwell T, Mallen CD. 2013. Is cancer associated with polymyalgia rheumatica? A cohort study in the General Practice Research Database. Ann Rheum Dis. link> doi>
  • Mallen CD, Thomas E, Belcher J, Rathod T, Croft P, Peat G. 2013. Point-of-Care Prognosis for Common Musculoskeletal Pain in Older Adults. JAMA Internal Medicine, vol. 173(12), 1119-1125. link> doi>
  • Mahmud A, Kettle C, Bick D, Rowley C, Rathod T, Belcher J, Abdel-Maguid M, Ismail K. 2013. The maternity perineal assessment and repair e-learning system (MaternityPEARLS): an internet based training package for the management of perineal trauma following childbirth. BJOG-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY, vol. 120, 323. link>
  • Kadam UT, Blagojevic M, Belcher J. 2013. Statin use and osteoarthritis. J Gen Intern Med. link> doi>
  • Clarson LE, Hider SL, Belcher J, Heneghan C, Roddy E, Mallen CD. 2013. GOUT IS AN INDEPENDENT RISK FACTOR FOR ALL TYPES OF VASCULAR DISEASE: A RETROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY IN THE UK GENERAL PRACTICE RESEARCH DATABASE. RHEUMATOLOGY (vol. 52, pp. 38-39). link>

Full Publications List show

Journal Articles

  • Muller S, Hider SL, Belcher J, Helliwell T, Mallen CD. 2013. Is cancer associated with polymyalgia rheumatica? A cohort study in the General Practice Research Database. Ann Rheum Dis. link> doi>
  • Mallen CD, Thomas E, Belcher J, Rathod T, Croft P, Peat G. 2013. Point-of-Care Prognosis for Common Musculoskeletal Pain in Older Adults. JAMA Internal Medicine, vol. 173(12), 1119-1125. link> doi>
  • Mahmud A, Kettle C, Bick D, Rowley C, Rathod T, Belcher J, Abdel-Maguid M, Ismail K. 2013. The maternity perineal assessment and repair e-learning system (MaternityPEARLS): an internet based training package for the management of perineal trauma following childbirth. BJOG-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF OBSTETRICS AND GYNAECOLOGY, vol. 120, 323. link>
  • Kadam UT, Blagojevic M, Belcher J. 2013. Statin use and osteoarthritis. J Gen Intern Med. link> doi>
  • Mahmud A, Kettle C, Bick D, Rowley C, Rathod T, Belcher J, Abdelmaguid MM, Ismail KM. 2013. The development and validation of an internet-based training package for the management of perineal trauma following childbirth: MaternityPEARLS. Postgrad Med J, vol. 89(1053), 382-389. link> doi>
  • Kadam UT, Blagojevic M, Belcher J. 2013. Statin use and clinical osteoarthritis in the general population: a longitudinal study. J Gen Intern Med, vol. 28(7), 943-949. link> doi>
  • Cotton SJ, Belcher J, Rose P, Jagadeesan SK, Neal RD. 2013. The risk of a subsequent cancer diagnosis after herpes zoster infection: primary care database study. BRITISH JOURNAL OF CANCER, vol. 108(3), 721-726. link> doi>
  • Gilchrist FJ, Sims H, Alcock A, Belcher J, Jones AM, Smith D, Spanel P, Webb AK, Lenney W. 2012. Quantification of hydrogen cyanide and 2-aminoacetophenone in the headspace of Pseudomonas aeruginosa cultured under biofilm and planktonic conditions. ANALYTICAL METHODS, vol. 4(11), 3661-3665. link> doi>
  • Hancock AT, Mallen CD, Belcher J, Hider SL. 2012. Association between polymyalgia rheumatica and vascular disease: a systematic review. Arthritis Care Res (Hoboken), vol. 64(9), 1301-1305. link> doi>
  • Bedson J, Belcher J, Martino OI, Ndlovu M, Rathod T, Walters K, Dunn KM, Jordan KP. 2013. The effectiveness of national guidance in changing analgesic prescribing in primary care from 2002 to 2009: an observational database study. Eur J Pain, vol. 17(3), 434-443. link> doi>
  • Lacey RJ, Belcher J, Croft PR. 2012. Does life course socio-economic position influence chronic disabling pain in older adults? A general population study. The European Journal of Public Health. doi> full text>
  • Lacey RJ, Belcher J, Croft PR. 2012. Validity of two simple measures for estimating life-course socio-economic position in cross-sectional postal survey data in an older population: results from the North Staffordshire Osteoarthritis Project (NorStOP). BMC Medical Research Methodology, vol. 12, 88. doi>
  • Roddy E, Myers H, Thomas MJ, Marshall M, D'Cruz D, Menz HB, Belcher J, Muller S, Peat G. 2011. The clinical assessment study of the foot (CASF): study protocol for a prospective observational study of foot pain and foot osteoarthritis in the general population. J Foot Ankle Res, vol. 4, 22. link> doi>
  • Williams NH, Amoakwa E, Belcher J, Edwards RT, Hassani H, Hendry M, Burton K, Lewis R, Hood K, Jones J, Bennett P, Linck P, Neal RD. 2011. Activity increase despite arthritis (AIDA): phase II randomised controlled trial of an active management booklet for hip and knee osteoarthritis in primary care. Br J Gen Pract, vol. 589(61), 452-458. doi>
  • Gilchrist FJ, Alcock A, Belcher J, Brady M, Jones A, Smith D, Spanĕl P, Webb K, Lenney W. 2011. Variation in hydrogen cyanide production between different strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Eur Respir J, vol. 38(2), 409-414. link> doi>
  • Trivedi B, Marshall M, Belcher J, Roddy E. 2010. A systematic review of radiographic definitions of foot osteoarthritis in population-based studies. Osteoarthritis Cartilage, vol. 18(8), 1027-1035. link> doi>
  • Lawson VL, Bundy C, Belcher J, Harvey JN. 2010. Mediation by illness perceptions of the effect of personality and health threat communication on coping with the diagnosis of diabetes. British Journal of Health Psychology, vol. 15(3), 623-642.
  • Williams NH, Amoakwa E, Burton K, Hendry M, Belcher J, Lewis R, Hood K, Jones J, Bennett P, Edwards RT, Neal RD, Andrew G, Wilkinson C. 2009. Activity Increase Despite Arthritis (AIDA): design of a Phase II randomised controlled trial evaluating an active management booklet for hip and knee osteoarthritis [ISRCTN24554946]. BMC FAMILY PRACTICE, vol. 10, Article ARTN 62. link> doi>
  • Richards PJ, McCall IW, Day C, Belcher J, Maffulli N. 2010. Longitudinal microvascularity in Achilles tendinopathy (power Doppler ultrasound, magnetic resonance imaging time-intensity curves and the Victorian Institute of Sport Assessment-Achilles questionnaire): a pilot study. Skeletal Radiol, vol. 39(6), 509-521. link> doi>
  • McMaster P, Park DY, Shann F, Cochrane A, Morris K, Gray J, Cottrell S, Belcher J. 2009. Procalcitonin versus C-reactive protein and immature-to-total neutrophil ratio as markers of infection after cardiopulmonary bypass in children. Pediatr Crit Care Med, vol. 10(2), 217-221. link> doi>
  • Richards PJ, Pattison JM, Belcher J, Decann RW, Anderson S, Wynn-Jones C. 2009. A new tilt on pelvic radiographs: a pilot study. Skeletal Radiol, vol. 38(2), 113-122. link> doi>
  • Belcher J and Wilson GT. 2000. Time scale estimation by tracking parameter variation. JOURNAL OF TIME SERIES ANALYSIS, vol. 21(3), 237-248. link> doi>
  • Burge PS, Pantin CFA, Newton DT, Gannon PFG, Bright P, Belcher J, McCoach J, Baldwin DR, Burge CBSG, Grp MTSR. 1999. Development of an expert system for the interpretation of serial peak expiratory flow measurements in the diagnosis of occupational asthma. OCCUPATIONAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MEDICINE, vol. 56(11), 758-764. link>
  • Gannon PFG, Belcher J, Pantin CFA, Burge PS. 1999. The effect of patient technique and training on the accuracy of self-recorded peak expiratory flow. EUROPEAN RESPIRATORY JOURNAL, vol. 14(1), 28-31. link> doi>
  • Hacking S, Foreman D, Belcher J. 1996. The descriptive assessment for psychiatric art. A new way of quantifying paintings by psychiatric patients. J Nerv Ment Dis, vol. 184(7), 425-430. link> doi>
  • Henshaw C, Foreman D, Belcher J, Cox J, O'Brien S. 1996. Can one induce premenstrual symptomatology in women with prior hysterectomy and bilateral oophorectomy?. J Psychosom Obstet Gynaecol, vol. 17(1), 21-28. link> doi>
  • Chambers R and Belcher J. 1994. Predicting mental health problems in general practitioners. Occup Med (Lond), vol. 44(4), 212-216. link> doi>
  • BELCHER J, HAMPTON J, WILSON G. 1994. PARAMETERIZATION OF CONTINUOUS-TIME AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS FOR IRREGULARLY SAMPLED TIME-SERIES DATA. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES B-METHODOLOGICAL, vol. 56(1), 141-155. link>
  • Chambers R and Belcher J. 1993. Work patterns of general practitioners before and after the introduction of the 1990 contract. Br J Gen Pract, vol. 43(375), 410-412. link>
  • HENSHAW C, OBRIEN S, FOREMAN D, COX J, BELCHER J. 1993. AN EXPERIMENTAL-MODEL FOR PREMENSTRUAL-SYNDROME. NEUROPSYCHOPHARMACOLOGY, vol. 9(2), S71. link>
  • Chambers R and Belcher J. 1993. Comparison of the health and lifestyle of general practitioners and teachers. Br J Gen Pract, vol. 43(374), 378-382. link>
  • TSANG K, RUTMAN A, KANTHAKUMAR K, BELCHER J, LUND V, ROBERTS D, READ R, COLE P, WILSON R. 1993. HAEMOPHILUS-INFLUENZAE INFECTION OF HUMAN RESPIRATORY MUCOSA IN LOW CONCENTRATIONS OF ANTIBIOTICS. AMERICAN REVIEW OF RESPIRATORY DISEASE, vol. 148(1), 201-207. link>
  • Chambers R and Belcher J. 1992. Self-reported health care over the past 10 years: a survey of general practitioners. Br J Gen Pract, vol. 42(357), 153-156. link>
  • Tsang KW, Bentley AM, Mann JS, Belcher J, Pantin CF. 1992. Survey of outpatient sputum cytology: influence of written instructions on sample quality and who benefits from investigation. Qual Health Care, vol. 1(1), 48-50. link>

Other

  • Clarson LE, Hider SL, Belcher J, Heneghan C, Roddy E, Mallen CD. 2013. GOUT IS AN INDEPENDENT RISK FACTOR FOR ALL TYPES OF VASCULAR DISEASE: A RETROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY IN THE UK GENERAL PRACTICE RESEARCH DATABASE. RHEUMATOLOGY (vol. 52, pp. 38-39). link>
  • Muller S, Mallen CD, Belcher J, Helliwell T, Hider SL. 2013. THE RISK OF A SUBSEQUENT CANCER DIAGNOSIS AFTER PMR: A PRIMARY CARE DATABASE STUDY. RHEUMATOLOGY (vol. 52, p. 40). link>
  • Rzewuska M, Mallen C, Strauss VY, Belcher J, Peat G. 2012. THE COURSE OF COMORBID ANXIETY SYMPTOMS IN PATIENTS PRESENTING TO GENERAL PRACTICE WITH SYMPTOMATIC OSTEOARTHRITIS: LATENT CLASS GROWTH ANALYSIS. RHEUMATOLOGY (vol. 51, pp. 110-111). link>
  • Lacey RJ, Belcher J, Croft PR. 2010. INFLUENCE OF LIFE-COURSE SOCIO-ECONOMIC POSITION ON PAIN INTERFERENCE IN A PROSPECTIVE COHORT STUDY OF OLDER ADULTS. JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH (vol. 64, pp. A41-A42). link> doi>
  • Lacey RJ, Belcher J, Croft PR. 2010. VALIDITY AND RELIABILITY OF TWO INDICATORS OF SOCIOECONOMIC POSITION IN A POPULATION SURVEY OF OLDER ADULTS. JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY AND COMMUNITY HEALTH (vol. 64, p. A45). link> doi>
  • Price R, Carroll WD, Belcher J, Lenney W. 2004. Review of Pseudomonas aeruginosa infection within a single CF centre. THORAX (vol. 59, p. 78). link>
  • Belcher J. 1998. Tests for menstrual synchrony and association with a mood indicator. JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL PSYCHOLOGY (vol. 42, p. 521). link>

MAT-30014: Medical Statistics
MAT-20023: Probability
MAT-10040: Algebra II