Mathematics Department

John Belcher

Lecturer in Medical Statistics


BIOGRAPHY

After completing A levels in Maths, Further Maths, French and History, I enrolled on a Mathematics programme in 1982 at Lancaster. After graduating in 1985 I remained there as a SERC funded research assistant to work on time series problems in climatology. I also undertook an MPhil degree part-time. In 1988 I was appointed lecturer in statistics at Keele as part of a joint initiative between the university and the local health authority. I was awarded a PhD in medical statistics in 1997 which analysed studies involving repeated measures, binary valued time series, unequally spaced peak flow data and a comparison of time and frequency domain methods.

RESEARCH INTERESTS

I am interested in developing models for irregularly sampled time series using a state space formulation with medical applications. A multi-disciplinary research group has been working since 1989 in the area of occupational asthma. This involves medics at Keele and at the Heartlands Trust Hospital, Boardesly Green, Birmingham. Initial analysis using continuous time modelling has identified work-related rhythms. Results have been presented at several European Thoracic Society Meetings in Vienna, Florence and Nice. We are also examining how specific measures of peakflow can be used as predictors of occupational asthma using techniques such as discriminant analysis.

I am also interested in developing methods for modelling the relationships between two or more irregularly sampled series, with sampling possibly carried out at different times. For example the rate of decline of renal function, i.e. the first derivative, over a period of months and years is a measure of the level of the disease. This may be indirectly measured by blood and urine measurements, but these may be taken at different times. In order to calibrate these measurements, or even to test for an association, a model is required to relate them. A continuous time state model in which the disease level is the prime state variable, with an observation equation for both measured variables, one which represents an integrated response, is envisaged.

I am also interested in applications of Time Series Methods to medical data such as Intervention Analysis, Transfer Function Models and Spectral Analysis. I currently hold a joint appointment with the Local Health Authority to which I act as a statistical consultant across a wide variety of statistical techniques.

PUBLICATIONS AND ABSTRACTS

  1. Tunnicliffe Wilson, G. and Belcher J., Modelling, estimation and testing of time-dependent climatological parameters, in K. Cehak, Ed. Third International Conference on Statistical Climatology, Vienna, 1988, pp. 112-118, Osterreichischef Gesellschaft fur Meterologie.
  2. Chambers, R. and Belcher, J., Self-reported health care over the past 10 years: A survey of general practitioners, British Journal of General Practice, Vol. 42, 1992, pp. 153-156.
  3. Gannon, P.F.G., Belcher, J., Nobbs, J.N., Pantin, C.F.A. and Burge, P.S., The accuracy of self recorded peak expiratory flow, European Respiratory Meeting 1992, European Respiratory Journal, Vol. 5(15), 1992, pp. 170.
  4. Gannon, P.F.G., Belcher, J., Nobbs, J.N., Pantin, C.F.A. and Burge, P.S., Self recorded peak flows -- How accurate they are?, British Thoracic Society Meeting 1991, Thorax, Vol. 46, 1992, pp. 758.
  5. Gannon, P.F.G., Belcher, J., Pantin, C.F.A. and Burge, P.S., Effect of the number of peak expiratory flow rate recordings per day on diurnal variation, European Respiratory Meeting 1992, European Respiratory Journal, Vol. 5(15), 1992, pp. 200.
  6. Gannon, P.F.G., Belcher, J., Pantin, C.F.A. and Burge, P.S., Different methods of calculating diurnal variation in peak expiratory flow, European Respiratory Meeting 1992, European Respiratory Journal, Vol. 5(15), 1992, pp. 200.
  7. Gannon, P.F.G., Belcher, J., Pantin, C.F.A., Burge, P.S., Dickenson, S.A. and Miller, M.R., Non-linearity on the Mini-Wright peak flow meter and its effect on the calculation of diurnal variation, European Respiratory Meeting 1992, European Respiratory Journal, Vol. 5(15), pp. 199.
  8. Gannon, P.F.G., Belcher, J., Burgess, D.C.L. and Burge, P.S., Interpretation of serial peak flow records from workers in an electroplating factory, European Respiratory Meeting 1992, European Respiratory Journal, Vol. 5(15), 1992, pp. 403.
  9. Belcher, J., Gannon, P.F.G., Pantin, C.F.A. and Burge, P.S., Spectral analysis of peak flow records with suspected occupational asthma, European Respiratory Meeting 1992, European Respiratory Journal, Vol. 5(15), 1992, pp. 170.
  10. Tsang, K.W.T., Bentley, A.M., Mann, J.S., Belcher, J. and Pantin, C.F.A., Survey of outpatient sputum cytology: Influence of written instructions on sample quality and who benefits from investigation, Quality in Health Care, British Medical Journal, Vol. 1(1), 1992, pp. 48-51.
  11. Chambers, R. and Belcher, J., Work patterns of general practitioners before and after the introduction of the 1990 contract, British Journal of General Practice, Vol. 43, 1993, pp. 410-412.
  12. Chambers, R. and Belcher, J., Comparison of the health and lifestyle of general practitioners and teachers, British Journal of General Practice, Vol. 43, 1993, pp. 378-382.
  13. Henshaw, C., O'Brien, P.M.S., Foreman, D., Belcher, J. and Cox, J.L., An experimental model for PMS, Neuropsychopharmacology, Vol. 9(25), 1993, pp. 713.
  14. Tsang, K.W.T., Rutman, A., Kanthakumar, K., Belcher, J., Lund, V., Roberts, D.E., Read, R.C., Cole, P.J. and Wilson,R., Haemophilus influence infection of human respiratory mucosa in low concentrations of antibiotics, American Journal of Respiratory Diseases, Vol. 148, 1993, pp. 201-207.
  15. Belcher, J., Tunnicliffe Wilson, G. and Hampton, J.S., Parameterization of Continuous Time Autoregressive Models for Irregularly Sampled Time Series Data, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Vol. 56(1), 1994, pp. 141-155.
  16. Chambers, R. and Belcher, J., Predicting mental health problems in general practice, Journal of Occupational Medicine, Vol. 44, 1994, pp. 212-216.
  17. Henshaw, C., O'Brien, P.M.S., Foreman, D., Belcher, J. and Cox, J.L., Can one induce premenstrual symtomatology in women with prior hysterectomy and bilateral oophorectomy?, Journal of Pyschosomatic Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Vol. 17, 1996, pp. 21-28.
  18. Gannon, P.F.G., Newton, D.T., Belcher, J., Pantin, C.F.A. and Burge, P.S., The development of Oasys-2; a system for the analysis of serial measurement of peak expiratory flow in workers with suspected occupational asthma, Thorax, Vol. 51, 1996, pp. 484-489.
  19. Hacking, S., Foreman, D., Belcher, J., Descriptive Assessment for Psychiatric Artwork: a new way of quantifying painting by psychiatric patients, Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease, Vol. 184, 1996, pp. 425-430.
  20. Baldwin, D.R., Kolbe, J., Troy, K., Belcher, J., Gibbs, H., Frankel, A., Eaton, T., Christmas, T. and Veale, A., Comparative clinical and physiological features of Maori, Pacific Islanders and Europeans with sleep related breathing disorders, Respirology, 1998, Vol. 3, pp. 253-260.
  21. Belcher, J., Tests for menstrual synchrony and association with a mood indicator, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 42, 1998, pp. 521.
  22. Burge,P.S., Pantin, C.F.A., Newton, D.T., Gannon, P.F.G., Bright, P., Belcher, J., McCoach, J., Baldwin, D.R. and Burge, C.D., Development of an expert system for the interpretation of serial peak expiratory flow measurements in the diagnosis of occupational asthma, Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Vol.14, 1999, pp. 758-764.
  23. Gannon, P.F.G., Belcher, J., Pantin, C.F.A. and Burge, P.S., The effect of patient technique and training on the accuracy of self-recorded peak expiratory flow, European Respiratory Journal, Vol. 14, 1999, pp. 28-31.
  24. Belcher, J. and Tunnicliffe Wilson,G., Time Scale Estimation by Tracking Parameter Variation, Journal of Time Series Analysis, Vol. 21, 2000, pp. 237-248.